EVENT RECAP: EstVCA Funds on Stage 2026
On 19 February, our community gathered at NOËP Distillery for a tradition that has become a symbolic kickoff to the year: EstVCA Funds on Stage. EstVCA member funds stepped into the spotlight to reflect on their 2025 journey and outline how they are positioning themselves for 2026. Despite geopolitical tension and macroeconomic volatility, the prevailing mood was neither defensive nor euphoric. It was pragmatic. If 2025 was about proving resilience, 2026 is about proving maturity.
2025: Less Noise, More Execution
Despite a soft exit environment and cautious capital markets, funds continued to deploy: selectively and strategically, with increasingly larger follow-on reserves. Many reported:
Importantly, 2025 pushed funds to sharpen their identity. Generalist strategies matured. Sector-focused mandates doubled down. Early-stage conviction remained strong, supported by deeper underwriting and stronger governance structures.
The Liquidity Question
Perhaps the most strategic discussion of the evening centred around liquidity. CEE continues to produce world-class companies. However, the regional liquidity environment remains underdeveloped compared to more mature ecosystems.
The conversation has shifted from “When will exits return?” to “How do we build alternative liquidity mechanisms?” Secondaries, structured solutions, hybrid transactions and institutional anchor LPs are increasingly becoming part of the ecosystem’s architecture. Several funds emphasised:
2026 may mark an inflexion point at which liquidity solutions shift from opportunistic to structural.
Sector Signals #1: Resilience as an Investment Theme
Resilience is no longer a buzzword. It is an allocation thesis. Defence-tech mandates expanded beyond national borders into NATO-aligned ecosystems. Green funds progressed from early deployment toward evergreen continuity. Capital is flowing into technologies that address structural geopolitical and environmental realities.
In 2025, funds increased exposure to:
Sector Signals #2: AI Moves from Hype to Application
AI remains omnipresent, but the tone has shifted. The winners are not necessarily the loudest, but those embedding AI into defensible products with real revenue traction. Rather than chasing foundation models, funds are targeting:
Sector Signals #3: Early Stage Remains Estonia’s Strength
Despite global headwinds, early-stage investing remains the backbone of the Estonian ecosystem. Accelerator-linked models, university spinouts and day-one founder backing continue to expand the pipeline. Several funds highlighted:
The conviction remains clear: the next generation is already taking shape.
Fundraising Realities: 2026 Will Be a Defining Year
Fundraising was a strong undercurrent throughout the evening. Multiple funds are:
The macro environment remains demanding. Competition for LP capital is high. Expectations around reporting, DPI and governance are rising. At the same time, there is growing recognition that Estonia’s venture ecosystem has matured. Now, the ecosystem must clearly communicate that maturity.
Speakers emphasised the need for stronger collective storytelling — highlighting success cases, demonstrating real economic impact, and showing realised returns. Just as importantly, they underscored the need for closer cooperation among funds, the government, and institutional investors to ensure that Estonia’s venture sector continues to build credibility, attract capital, and strengthen its long-term foundations. 2026 will be critical not only for portfolio companies but also for venture platforms themselves.
Portfolio Maturity: The Ageing Curve Begins
Many 2022–2023 vintage portfolios are now entering their next funding rounds. This creates new dynamics:
Funds are shifting from pure sourcing to active portfolio management. This evolution is natural and a clear sign of ecosystem depth.
A More Institutional Estonia
One of the clearest signals from the evening was this: Estonia is no longer an emerging startup market. The flywheel is spinning, and 2026 must accelerate it.
2025: Less Noise, More Execution
Despite a soft exit environment and cautious capital markets, funds continued to deploy: selectively and strategically, with increasingly larger follow-on reserves. Many reported:
- Active portfolios raising meaningful rounds
- A balanced mix of new investments and follow-ons
- Increased exposure to scale-ups alongside seed-stage entries
- Strong internal operational upgrades within fund teams
- Portfolio NAV growth across multiple vehicles
- Continued exits — even in a “slow” market
Importantly, 2025 pushed funds to sharpen their identity. Generalist strategies matured. Sector-focused mandates doubled down. Early-stage conviction remained strong, supported by deeper underwriting and stronger governance structures.
The Liquidity Question
Perhaps the most strategic discussion of the evening centred around liquidity. CEE continues to produce world-class companies. However, the regional liquidity environment remains underdeveloped compared to more mature ecosystems.
The conversation has shifted from “When will exits return?” to “How do we build alternative liquidity mechanisms?” Secondaries, structured solutions, hybrid transactions and institutional anchor LPs are increasingly becoming part of the ecosystem’s architecture. Several funds emphasised:
- The institutionalisation of secondary markets globally
- The need to deliver DPI, not just paper returns
- Shorter liquidity cycles to accelerate the ecosystem flywheel
2026 may mark an inflexion point at which liquidity solutions shift from opportunistic to structural.
Sector Signals #1: Resilience as an Investment Theme
Resilience is no longer a buzzword. It is an allocation thesis. Defence-tech mandates expanded beyond national borders into NATO-aligned ecosystems. Green funds progressed from early deployment toward evergreen continuity. Capital is flowing into technologies that address structural geopolitical and environmental realities.
In 2025, funds increased exposure to:
- Green transition and climate infrastructure
- Defence and dual-use technologies
- Energy security
- Strategic autonomy
Sector Signals #2: AI Moves from Hype to Application
AI remains omnipresent, but the tone has shifted. The winners are not necessarily the loudest, but those embedding AI into defensible products with real revenue traction. Rather than chasing foundation models, funds are targeting:
- Applied AI within vertical workflows
- Developer tools
- AI-enabled infrastructure
- Operational efficiency platforms
Sector Signals #3: Early Stage Remains Estonia’s Strength
Despite global headwinds, early-stage investing remains the backbone of the Estonian ecosystem. Accelerator-linked models, university spinouts and day-one founder backing continue to expand the pipeline. Several funds highlighted:
- Increasing ticket sizes
- Larger follow-on reserves
- Diversified pan-European exposure
- Continued belief in Baltic and Ukrainian founders
The conviction remains clear: the next generation is already taking shape.
Fundraising Realities: 2026 Will Be a Defining Year
Fundraising was a strong undercurrent throughout the evening. Multiple funds are:
- Closing final rounds
- Entering their last deployment years
- Preparing for Fund II or Fund III launches.
- Transitioning toward more institutional LP bases
The macro environment remains demanding. Competition for LP capital is high. Expectations around reporting, DPI and governance are rising. At the same time, there is growing recognition that Estonia’s venture ecosystem has matured. Now, the ecosystem must clearly communicate that maturity.
Speakers emphasised the need for stronger collective storytelling — highlighting success cases, demonstrating real economic impact, and showing realised returns. Just as importantly, they underscored the need for closer cooperation among funds, the government, and institutional investors to ensure that Estonia’s venture sector continues to build credibility, attract capital, and strengthen its long-term foundations. 2026 will be critical not only for portfolio companies but also for venture platforms themselves.
Portfolio Maturity: The Ageing Curve Begins
Many 2022–2023 vintage portfolios are now entering their next funding rounds. This creates new dynamics:
- Increased follow-on capital intensity
- More complex syndicate construction
- Greater valuation discipline
- Tightened governance
- Earlier exit preparation
Funds are shifting from pure sourcing to active portfolio management. This evolution is natural and a clear sign of ecosystem depth.
A More Institutional Estonia
One of the clearest signals from the evening was this: Estonia is no longer an emerging startup market. The flywheel is spinning, and 2026 must accelerate it.
- Institutional LP participation is growing.
- Cross-border capital is integrating more deeply.
- Hybrid primary-secondary structures are emerging.
- Scale-up rounds are becoming more common.
- Exit conversations are increasingly strategic rather than opportunistic.
Looking ahead to 2026, the message from the stage was clear. The focus now is on delivering real liquidity. At the same time, conviction remains strong around resilience-driven sectors such as climate, defence, applied AI and critical infrastructure. Just as importantly, there is a shared understanding that the ecosystem must speak with a stronger, more unified voice: increasing collaboration, improving visibility, backing up ambition with data, and celebrating shared wins. As the evening moved into networking, one sentiment lingered in the room: the Estonian venture ecosystem has entered a new phase. See you at the next Funds on Stage.
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